עקזיט פאולס! עקזיט פאולס! עקזיט פאולס!

AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
Kerry 45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57
Bush 55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41

These numbers come from Slate. I've taken out a couple numbers that are clearly from the first round:

NV CO NC PA OH FL MI NM WI
Kerry 48 46 49 54 50 50 51 50 51
Bush 50 53 51 45 49 49 47 48 46

Update on the Senate races
by Jerome Armstrong

After this, Chris and I are going to turn to watching the early returns in Kentucky, Indiana, and so forth...
North Carolina-- Turnout is huge, waiting in lines, with perfect weather, and it could exceed 68%, the record from 1984. This rocks for Bowles!

South Carolina-- Normal turnout for Republicans and Democrats. The absentee numbers favor the Democrats. Let's hope a little here for an upset.

Alaska-- Murkowski's turnout of the Republican base is low. There are long lines reported in Anchorage, and very high turnout in SE Alaska, where Knowles is also strong. Looks solid.

Colorado-- Reports of long lines, and the Democratic base is outperforming the Republican base by over 10%, which is huge, for both Kerry and Salazar.

Florida-- Democrats are performing better than Republicans in getting out their base by about 7% overall. Castor should win with that sort of margin.

Oklahoma-- Maybe a surprise here, CNN has an exit polling showing Carson up by 1%, but turnout is very high for both parties.

South Dakota-- apparently the turnout is at a record pace.

SENATE AK: Knowles 50 - Murk 47 CO Salazar 51, Coors 47 FL Castor 51, Martinez 48 KY Bunning 52, Mongiardo 48 LA Vitter may get the 50 percent that would elect him, 51 percent NC Burr 50 Bowles 48 OK Coburn 51 Carson 46 SC DeMint 50.2 - Tenenbaum 49.8SD Thune 50 Daschle 50

Good news for Salazar, Knowles and Castor. Bowles is "closing fast" but still behind. Tenenbaum is "right there." Carson is in trouble. As is Daschle.

This is from DSCC.

Kerry Bush

PA 53 46
FL 51 49
NC 48 52
OH 51 49
MO 46 54
AR 47 53
MI 51 47
NM 50 49
LA 43 56
CO 48 51
AZ 45 55
MN 54 44
WI 52 47
IA 49 49

Bush projected winner in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky
Kerry projected winner in Vermont

Bush
Indiana (11)
Kentucky (8)
Georgia (15)
West Virginia (5)
Oklahoma (7)
Alabama (9)
Tennessee (11)

Kerry
Vermont (3)
Connecticut (7)
Maine (4)
New Jersey (15)
Masachusetts (12)
Delaware (3)
D.C. (3)
Maryland (10)
Illinois (21)

Total:

Electoral
Bush 66
Kerry 77

Popular
Bush 56
Kery 43